Methodology

WHAT IS HYPE HALF-LIFE

Every new TCG set launches at a premium — hype, scarcity, and FOMO push street prices above where they settle. Hype Half-Life is the number of days it takes for that launch premium to fall to half of its peak. Shorter half-life = faster cooldown; longer = stickier demand (or constrained supply). It is a decay measurement, not a buy/sell signal.

FORMULA

(for a sealed product; the set's flagship booster box unless stated)

P0 (baseline) = last pre-release daily price; if none exists, the day-1 (release-day) price.

P_peak = highest daily price in the first 14 days after release (day of peak = D_peak).

Launch premium H0 = P_peak − P0 (also shown as H0 / P0).

Premium on day d: H(d) = P(d) − P0.

Hype Half-Life t½ = days after D_peak until H(d) ≤ H0/2 first holds, with linear interpolation between daily closes when the crossing lands between days.

Price series = one daily TCGCSV-derived price field per SKU, end-to-end; release date = the admin-tracked street date.

EDGE RULES

• If the premium hasn't halved by the report date, publish the censored bound ("t½ > N days") — do not extrapolate.
• If H0 is under 2% of P0, report "no measurable launch premium" rather than a half-life.
• If H0 ≤ 0 (the 14-day peak never rises above P0), that is "no launch premium — priced at/below its pre-release baseline from day one," and the League Table row says "none."
• If price makes a new high after day 14, say so and note the 14-day window is a stated convention.
• If a data gap spans the halving crossing, publish the honest interval ("t½ between N and M days") instead of interpolating across the hole.

KNOWN BIAS

(state plainly)

P0 is a late-preorder price that already contains pre-release hype, so Hype Half-Life measures decay of the post-release premium over that late-preorder baseline — not premium-over-MSRP and not premium over intrinsic value. Cross-set comparisons stay valid because every set gets the identical baseline rule.