TCGstacker Data Desk
Hype Half-Life №1 — Pitch Black at D+30: the launch premium's decay, measured
August 16, 2026
Published retroactively: the D+30 window closed 2026-08-16, and these figures are frozen from TCGstacker's daily price series (data through 2026-08-19).
TL;DR — three numbers
Mega Evolution — Pitch Black (EN; Mega Darkrai ex, Mega Zeraora ex) released July 17, 2026. This is the first report in a series published thirty days after every major sealed release — same formula, same charts, whatever the curve looks like. The point is a number you can compare across sets, not a hot take. This first issue's answer happens to be the quiet one: the premium was already gone.
What is Hype Half-Life
Every new TCG set launches at a premium — hype, scarcity, and FOMO push street prices above where they settle. Hype Half-Life is the number of days it takes for that launch premium to fall to half of its peak. It is a decay measurement, not a buy/sell signal. Full formula and edge rules: Methodology.
The curve
Baseline $241.56 on 2026-07-16, the release-day drop to the windowed peak of $215.42 on D+2 — 10.8% below baseline — and the D+30 close at $191.09.
Per the methodology's edge rule, a 14-day peak that never rises above the baseline is reported as "no launch premium" — a half-life of nothing would be noise, so none is published.
The premium was priced in before release
Our baseline is the last pre-release daily price, and late preorders for this set already carried the hype: Pitch Black closed preorders well above distributor MSRP. Hype Half-Life measures decay of the post-release premium over that late-preorder baseline — not premium over MSRP. Pitch Black is the cleanest demonstration of why we state this bias plainly: the launch premium existed, but it was paid by preorder buyers before street date, and the daily series only ever recorded the cooldown.
Per-SKU cut
- Elite Trainer Box: $104.37 baseline → $70.82 (no launch premium).
- Booster bundle: $54.93 baseline → $38.71 (no launch premium).
All three SKUs told the same story — priced at or below baseline from day one, declining in lockstep.
League Table
| Release / report title | Hype Half-Life (days) | Peak premium | D+30 premium retained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch Black | — | — | — |
Want to track a set yourself? The same decay charts update daily in Deep Dive, and you can build your own basket of up to 25 sealed products in My Indexes. A free account unlocks the full product reveal — no subscription, no card on file, ever.
Track Pitch Black prices in the price guide.
Corrections
No corrections issued.